The Nobel Prize in Literature for 2025 will be officially announced today, October 9, at 13:00 CEST (7:00 a.m. EDT) by the Swedish Academy in Stockholm, with a live stream available on nobelprize.org. As of this moment, the winner has not yet been revealed, and the Academy maintains strict secrecy around nominations and deliberations—details aren’t disclosed for 50 years.
That said, the prize often surprises even experts, as seen in recent years (e.g., Bob Dylan in 2016, Han Kang in 2024 for her poetic confrontations with historical trauma). Based on current betting odds from UK bookmakers like Ladbrokes and NicerOdds, expert analyses from The Guardian and Literary Hub, and literary speculation forums, here are the top predicted contenders. These reflect a mix of avant-garde innovators, global voices, and perennial favorites, with odds emphasizing experimental writers from underrepresented regions:
| Author | Nationality | Notable Works | Why They’re Favored | Odds (as of Oct. 8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Can Xue | Chinese | Love in the New Millennium, The Last Lover | Avant-garde surrealism blending Freudian psychology and Eastern philosophy; was the 2024 favorite and would be the third Chinese laureate. | 10/1 |
| László Krasznahorkai | Hungarian | Satantango, The Melancholy of Resistance | Dystopian, hypnotic prose on apocalypse and exile; won the Man Booker International in 2015. | 10/1 |
| Gerald Murnane | Australian | The Plains, Border Districts | Introspective, metafictional explorations of memory and landscape; leading in some odds for his “idealistic” inward gaze. | 8/1 |
| Cristina Rivera Garza | Mexican | The Taiga Syndrome, No One Will See Me Cry | Genre-bending autofiction on migration, violence, and feminism; Pulitzer winner in 2024. | 12/1 |
| Haruki Murakami | Japanese | Kafka on the Shore, 1Q84 | Magical realism and existential melancholy; perennial contender but often seen as too commercial. | 14/1 |
Other notable dark horses include Salman Rushdie (12/1, for postcolonial satire), Margaret Atwood (16/1, for dystopian feminism), and César Aira (20/1, for prolific Argentine surrealism). Patterns from the last decade suggest the Academy favors innovative voices addressing trauma, identity, or form over mainstream giants—pointing toward someone like Can Xue or Rivera Garza.
If you’re watching the announcement, tune in via the official Nobel channels. The laureate will receive 11 million Swedish kronor (about $1.05 million USD), a medal, and a diploma at the December 10 ceremony in Stockholm. Who do you think it’ll be?